However, average annual global gross domestic product (GDP) growth significantly outpaces both population growth and the increase in the production of agricultural products,  including staple foods. This trend also applies to the production of energy sources and minerals.

South Africa has the potential for long- term local consumption of agricultural products outpacing population growth. For this to happen, however, the per capita income of consumers needs to improve. Growth in per capita consumer income could be boosted in the next decade by developments  in the local mineral sector.

The potential for growth in per capita consumer income is unfortunately limited because of South Africa’s focus on exporting raw materials rather than adding value to them. As a country,

we would have benefited from the growing demand for minerals if we had a comprehensive  production industry for batteries and electric or hybrid cars. Due to our high unemployment rate and low per capita income, our per capita demand for energy and such technology is also low. South Africa relies on the export of minerals or value-added products.

China is an example of a country in which the per capita income of consumers of crude oil, minerals, grains and plant-based oils is much higher than in India for instance. Although these two countries share a similar population growth rate, China’s local consumption of commodities such as crude oil, coal, minerals, grain and plant-based food is significantly higher. This is attributed to China’s GDP growth over the last 25 years being four times greater than India’s.

China’s usage of metals has roughly tripled the past 25 years, while usage in advanced economies and the rest of the world has stagnated. This sharp increase was driven by innovation and technological developments that led to a surge in demand for products such as iron ore, copper, and the platinum group of metals. National policies the world over have a significant influence on the demand for commodities.  For instance, in the United Kingdom, resource security is a priority. The country focusses on enhancing GDP by adding value to raw materials, replacing exports and establishing robust trade agreements. In centrally planned economies such as those in Eastern Europe, Russia, Cuba and China, the emphasis is on self-sufficiency. The United States supports the income of its producers (US Farm Bill).